Ballon d’Or Polymarket bets spark leak investigation

France Football revealed that it has contacted the police, and its owner, Groupe Amaury, is set to file a complaint over a possible leak after 12 Polymarket accounts correctly called the full top five of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

The accounts, opened in October 2026, wagered about $264,000 on Kane winning ahead of Mbappé, Yamal, Rodri, and Messi, and made nearly $200,000 when that order was confirmed at the London ceremony on October 26. Six of them placed their first bets 15 minutes after being set up.

One account bought a Kane-to-win contract at 37 cents, sold it at 67 cents and moved the money into bets on individual positions, including Yamal in third. Upside, which first reported the activity, traced one of the accounts to French financial app Deblock, which has reportedly identified the person behind it.

France Football has said only a handful of people know the winner before the ceremony.

Pascal Ferré, former France Football Editor, said:

“How do we keep the winner’s identity hidden? I think a well-kept secret is one that is shared with as few people as possible.”

French regulator ANJ treats prediction markets as illegal gambling and ordered Polymarket to be blocked in July. The award has leaked before, with Real Madrid skipping the 2024 ceremony after learning Vinícius Júnior would not win.